Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 26.083143 28.847844 31.990284 35.875244 40.620337 46.327112 53.873048
2025-03-09 21.988401 25.465082 29.756233 35.609414 43.683082 54.958366 73.075412
2025-03-16 19.249505 23.011215 27.934053 35.168740 46.197862 63.852135 98.714569
2025-03-23 17.318688 21.196599 26.502573 34.779547 48.524251 73.535606 135.483663
2025-03-30 15.900109 19.827026 25.396674 34.531684 50.901657 84.653100 193.372728
2025-04-06 14.623429 18.478694 24.090366 33.644645 51.816341 93.468796 269.159791
2025-04-13 14.153721 18.213584 24.340167 35.346918 58.258906 120.965870 611.159007
2025-04-20 13.343321 17.351948 23.530230 34.995741 60.272752 138.698195 1376.092333
2025-04-27 12.757472 16.769387 23.089224 35.227593 63.741784 166.836952 15678.873894
2025-05-04 12.269126 16.289687 22.754584 35.589942 67.734131 205.914589 NaN
2025-05-11 11.793454 15.788438 22.323437 35.670622 71.059417 252.210949 NaN
2025-05-18 11.277614 15.184603 21.652520 35.130430 72.393627 292.582380 NaN
2025-05-25 10.881119 14.753610 21.259322 35.160160 75.729200 371.614795 NaN
2025-06-01 10.473711 14.279014 20.746130 34.844065 77.871559 461.927471 NaN
2025-06-08 10.085157 13.812421 20.208897 34.393484 79.424438 573.253206 NaN
2025-06-15 9.737397 13.394145 19.728051 34.007374 81.142431 737.880964 NaN
2025-06-22 9.434507 13.034639 19.329539 33.763764 83.419171 1025.462488 NaN
2025-06-29 9.084591 12.578271 18.715456 32.907161 82.763144 1223.915292 NaN
2025-07-06 9.032514 12.625567 19.068662 34.545404 94.557556 6726.348866 NaN
2025-07-13 8.776819 12.307894 18.684705 34.206982 96.611874 46692.936435 NaN
2025-07-20 8.593385 12.107082 18.517838 34.429938 102.007228 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.432758 11.938157 18.402068 34.778521 108.634255 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.256838 11.733892 18.200083 34.856104 113.864002 NaN NaN